Cape Verde Braces for Water Deficit in 2026 Rainy Season
The Cape Verdean Institute of Meteorology (INMG) has issued a sober outlook for the 2026 rainy season, forecasting “deficient to normal” rainfall levels that could threaten the archipelago’s water security. The agency warned on Monday that the delayed arrival of the rains, coupled with punishingly high temperatures, may exacerbate existing water deficits across the islands.
A Late Start and Potential Dry Spells
According to the INMG statement, the upcoming season is expected to start later than usual. Even when the rains do arrive, meteorologists expect them to be interrupted by significant dry spells. While the season is predicted to conclude sometime between its normal end date and a late withdrawal, the total volume of precipitation is unlikely to reach optimal levels.
“Climate forecast models point to a high probability of above-average temperatures,” the institute noted. This heat is a major concern for the agricultural sector, as it increases evaporation rates and places additional stress on the most vulnerable farming regions already struggling with sparse water resources.
Regional Coordination and Hurricane Outlook
The 2026 forecast was developed through a comprehensive analysis of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, incorporating data from major international climate centers and the Regional Seasonal Forecasting Forum for West Africa.
In a rare piece of positive news, the institute predicts that Atlantic hurricane activity will remain below the climatological average this year. This reduction lowers the risk of tropical storms directly impacting the archipelago. However, the INMG cautioned that extreme weather events cannot be entirely ruled out and pledged to monitor atmospheric developments closely.
Advancing Early Warning Systems
The forecast comes on the heels of significant upgrades to Cape Verde’s monitoring capabilities. In June, the country successfully integrated two meteorological stations into the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) global network.
These upgrades are expected to provide more precise data and improve disaster risk prevention—a critical step forward following the devastating storms that battered the islands in 2025. The INMG stated it will continue to issue real-time warnings to help citizens and farmers mitigate the impacts of the coming season.
Image: Pexels – Nico Marín
