IMF Forecasts Solid Growth for Lusophone Economies Through 2027
Most Portuguese-speaking nations are poised for solid economic growth through 2027, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Bangkok. While global uncertainty remains, Lusophone economies from Africa to Southeast Asia are showing resilience, with Angola and Cape Verde leading the charge.
Angola and Cape Verde Lead African Growth
Angola’s economy is set to accelerate significantly. The IMF projects growth will hit 4.4% in 2026, up from an estimated 3.1% in 2025, before stabilizing at 3.3% in 2027. While inflation remains a concern, it is on a sharp downward trajectory, expected to drop from over 20% this year to roughly 10.2% by 2027.
Cape Verde remains one of the region’s top performers. Following a robust 6.3% expansion in 2025, the archipelago is forecast to maintain a steady 5% growth rate through 2027. The country also boasts a stable outlook for its labor market, with unemployment expected to hold steady at 8.5% alongside controlled inflation.
Mixed Outlook for Other Lusophone African Nations
Guinea-Bissau is expected to maintain healthy momentum, with growth forecasts of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027. However, the nation faces a persistent current account deficit hovering between 5.7% and 7% of GDP.
Mozambique is navigating a more gradual recovery path. Following a projected 0.2% contraction in 2025, the economy is expected to grow by 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Despite the recovery, the IMF warned of significant external deficits reaching nearly 41% of GDP and rising inflation, which could hit 6.8% by 2027.
In São Tomé and Príncipe, recovery will be slower. The IMF anticipates modest growth of just 0.4% in 2026, though this is expected to improve to 1.9% in 2027 as inflation begins to recede from double digits.
Brazil and Portugal Face Cooling Trends
Outside of Africa, the world’s largest Portuguese-speaking economy is seeing a slight cooldown. The IMF predicts Brazil’s growth will slow from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027. Experts attribute this to restrictive monetary policies aimed at hitting inflation targets, coupled with the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and general global uncertainty.
Portugal follows a similar trend, with growth revised to 2.1% this year and a projected 1.9% for 2027.
East Timor and the Global Context
In Southeast Asia, East Timor (Timor-Leste) continues to show strength with growth forecasts of 4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. While inflation remains low at around 2%, the IMF highlighted a massive current account deficit exceeding 38% of GDP as a key area of concern.
Globally, the IMF notes that while the tech sector and financial buffers have kept the world economy resilient, a broad slowdown is expected. Global growth is projected to dip to 3.1% in 2026 before bouncing back to 3.4% in 2027. The Fund warned that nations not integrated into the global technology value chain or those heavily dependent on energy imports face the most challenging road ahead.
Image: Pexels – Rafael Minguet Delgado
