Guinea-Bissau Divided: Constitutional Referendum Boycott
Guinea-Bissau stands at a political crossroads as the nation prepares for a controversial constitutional referendum this Sunday. The vote has sparked a fierce divide, with government and military figures launching a boots-on-the-ground campaign for approval, while opposition leaders urge a total boycott from the digital shadows of social media.
A Battle for the Constitution
The referendum, scheduled for August 30, seeks to ratify a new Fundamental Law drafted by the National Transition Council. The council was established after a military coup seized power in November 2025, ousting the government of Umaro Sissoco Embaló. The proposed changes are significant: the number of parliamentary deputies would be slashed from 102 to 65, and Bissau-Guineans living abroad would be stripped of their right to vote in presidential elections.
Supporters of the “Yes” vote, led by figures tied to the transitional government and the Military High Command, argue the changes are essential for stability. José Carlos Monteiro, the current Director-General of Migration and former Secretary of State, has been a central figure in the campaign, touring villages in the country’s eastern regions. “Only then will Guinea-Bissau have peace and order,” Monteiro told residents in a recently circulated video, claiming the new rules would ensure only the most dedicated candidates reach parliament.
Opposition Pushed to the Digital Fringe
While government officials campaign freely in public, opposition parties have been forced into the digital space. Following the coup, political activities at party headquarters and public gatherings were banned, leaving platforms like Facebook and TikTok as the only outlets for dissent.
Mainstream parties, including the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and the Social Renewal Party (PRS), have called on their supporters to boycott the vote. They view the referendum as an attempt to consolidate power within the presidency and have labeled the transition process a “palace coup” orchestrated to benefit deposed leader Umaro Sissoco Embaló.
Concerns Over Intimidation and Exclusion
Tensions are rising amid reports of military involvement. Local media have documented meetings between military leadership and troops, which the government describes as security briefings. However, opposition figures have decried these meetings as a form of intimidation designed to force soldiers to vote in favor of the new Constitution.
The logistics of the vote have also drawn criticism. Only citizens currently residing within the country will be permitted to vote, based on the 2023 census. This excludes the significant Bissau-Guinean diaspora, leaving approximately 914,428 eligible voters to decide the nation’s future.
A Prelude to December Elections
This Sunday’s vote serves as a high-stakes precursor to general elections scheduled for December 6. The political climate remains fragile; the last attempt at an election in November 2025 was violently interrupted by the military before results could even be announced.
As the referendum approaches, the international community watches a nation struggling to balance a return to democratic norms with a transition overseen by the very military force that dismantled its previous government.
Note: The Lusa agency coverage of these events is being conducted remotely following the Bissau-Guinean government’s expulsion of Portuguese media representatives in August 2025.
Image: Pexels – Mikhail Nilov
