World Bank Cuts Growth Forecasts for Portuguese-Speaking Africa
The World Bank has issued a sobering update for Portuguese-speaking African Countries (PALOP), slashing economic growth forecasts for nearly every nation in the bloc while warning of a sharp spike in inflation. According to the semi-annual report on Sub-Saharan African economies released today in Washington, Guinea-Bissau is the sole outlier in an otherwise downward trend.
Guinea-Bissau Stands Alone
Guinea-Bissau is the only Portuguese-speaking nation in Africa to see its prospects improve. The World Bank now expects the country to grow by 5.3% this year, a slight increase from the 5.2% projected in October. However, this growth comes at a cost, as inflation in the country is expected to nearly triple, jumping from a previously estimated 2% to 5.8%.
Broad Downgrades Across the Bloc
The remaining PALOP nations face a more difficult road ahead. Mozambique saw the most drastic revision; once expected to expand by 3%, its growth forecast has been slashed to a mere 0.9%. Equatorial Guinea is braced for a full-blown recession, with its economy expected to contract by 3.5%—a sharp reversal from the modest growth predicted just months ago.
The region’s heavyweights are also feeling the squeeze. Angola’s growth forecast was trimmed to 2.4%, while Cape Verde was lowered to 4.8%. São Tomé and Príncipe is now expected to grow by 2.9%, down from an earlier 4% projection.
World Bank Economic Forecasts (April 2026)
| Country | GDP Growth (%) | Inflation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Angola | 2.4 | 14.9 |
| Cape Verde | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| Equatorial Guinea | -3.5 | 6.2 |
| Mozambique | 0.9 | 7.5 |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.9 | 11.0 |
Inflation and Declining Wealth
The World Bank largely attributes this economic cooling to the ripple effects of conflict in the Middle East. These geopolitical tensions are driving up prices across the board. Angola is set to grapple with the highest price increases at nearly 15%, followed by São Tomé and Príncipe at 11%.
The report paints a worrying picture of regional poverty. Economists warn that nearly a third of Sub-Saharan African countries will see per capita income levels fall below those recorded in 2014. The decline is particularly acute in oil-dependent or conflict-heavy nations like Angola and Equatorial Guinea, where residents are now more than 25% poorer than they were a decade ago.
On average, the PALOP nations are projected to grow by just 2% this year—less than half the 4.1% average growth rate expected for the broader Sub-Saharan Africa region.
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