Why Macau’s Leadership is Changing: Stalled Lusophone Diplomacy
The upcoming leadership change in Macau may be a signal from Beijing that the semi-autonomous region has failed to meet expectations in its role as a diplomatic bridge to the Lusophone world, according to political analysts.
On December 20, Sam Hou Fai will be sworn in as Macau’s new Chief Executive. He replaces the incumbent Ho Iat Seng, who declined to seek a second term, publicly citing unresolved health issues. However, observers suggest the transition may be fueled by more than just physical well-being.
A ‘Mission’ Unfulfilled
Leon Ieong Meng U, a researcher at the University of Macau, suggests that the Central Government in Beijing may have been dissatisfied with the outgoing administration’s performance. He points specifically to Macau’s “mission” to serve as a hub for the Forum for Economic and Trade Co-operation between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries (Forum Macau).
“In reality, they expected Macau to play a role in China’s foreign policy,” Ieong says, noting that Beijing envisions the city as a strategic link to Timor-Leste and Portuguese-speaking African nations (PALOP). “We all know that the Macau Government had plenty of time, but in practice, it did nothing very significant.”
The academic argues that under President Xi Jinping, China has prioritized “telling a good China story” and expanding global influence. For Macau, this meant using its historical ties to the Lusophone world to bolster China’s “soft power.” The lack of measurable progress in these diplomatic arenas may have cost Ho Iat Seng the political capital needed to stay in power.
The Pandemic Factor
Other experts offer a more nuanced view of the leadership’s challenges. José Luís de Sales Marques, former president of the Institute of European Studies of Macau, acknowledges that while relations could be more developed, the COVID-19 pandemic effectively paralyzed international outreach for three years.
Ho Iat Seng himself recently noted that he was forced to pivot to crisis management just ten days after taking office in late 2019. The resulting border closures decimated international student exchanges and face-to-face diplomatic missions. “This harmed, for example, the presence of students from Portuguese-speaking countries in various universities in Macau,” Sales Marques says.
Since travel restrictions were lifted, there have been signs of a restart. Ho’s first overseas trip in 2023 was to Portugal, and the sixth ministerial conference of Forum Macau was successfully held this April. Sales Marques believes Beijing still views the Lusophone connection as a vital instrument of Chinese influence.
Shifting Trust in Beijing
Despite the pandemic defense, some remain skeptical of the official narrative regarding Ho’s departure. Jason Chao Teng Hei, former president of the New Macau Association, notes that while Ho’s pandemic management was generally praised and his administration lacked major scandals, something shifted in the relationship with the mainland.
“I do not know why Ho lost Beijing’s trust or why Beijing is so anxious to make a change that could have happened five years from now,” says Chao, who is currently based in the UK.
As Sam Hou Fai prepares to take the reins, the pressure will be on his administration to prove that Macau can be more than a gambling hub, transforming into a proactive diplomatic asset that advances China’s interests across the Portuguese-speaking world.
Image: Pexels – RDNE Stock project
